From Predictive to Proactive: Adopting Strategic Foresight to Combat Climate Change

Climate change is a complex and far-reaching threat that impacts far more than the environment. Food and water insecurity, increased migrant and refugee flows, and economic instability, especially in developing countries, are just some of the problems that stem from climate change. As rising sea levels, drought increases, and other factors worsen, the Federal Government should adopt more innovative approaches that embrace strategic foresight to catch up on combating this threat.

Strategic foresight systematically uses knowledge and innovation techniques to help leaders anticipate and mitigate tomorrow’s threats, often 5, 10, or even 20 years into the future. It can help decision-makers be more agile and adaptable in the face of change and anticipate future disruptions.

Strategic foresight is not a crystal ball. It is a systematic way of thinking about the future based on trends and data. It requires an open and curious mindset, a willingness to consider multiple perspectives, input from a team of specialists from various disciplines, and a commitment to ongoing learning.

In the Federal Government, immediate threats such as disasters or droughts often receive the most attention. Yet, taking the time to step back to look into the future helps leaders better prioritize initiatives and programs to make a longer-term impact. For example, changes in rainfall patterns have caused prolonged droughts in recent years, leading to reduced water for urban and agricultural use, particularly in the western U.S. Additionally, more frequent and severe weather events, such as tornadoes and hurricanes, have displaced communities and damaged infrastructure, homes, and businesses.  A severe drought from 2006-2010 in Syria led to crop failures and water scarcity, resulting in social unrest that increased the proliferation of terrorist groups and weapons in the region.

Strategic foresight can help the Federal Government anticipate and prepare for both near- and long-term threats associated with climate change. For example, the Government could put strategic foresight at the forefront of its efforts to combat climate change by developing a national Strategic Foresight Framework for Climate Change that includes trends, drivers, and uncertainties that agencies could use to apply to their missions and strategies. This could result in a more resilient and sustainable future by helping Government leaders identify tomorrow’s threats from climate change.